ideasgasil.blogg.se

For locations such as Valdosta and Perry, the models have the line entering those locations early to late evening (between 6 p.m. TIMING: Convection-allowing forecast model runs from Monday morning were showing a squall line approaching the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers between late afternoon to early evening Monday, and nearing Tallahassee and Cairo between 5 p.m. Also, any breaks in the cloud cover could provide more heat and, therefore, more convective energy to work with. This meteorologist will continue to monitor the movement of the front during the day. LIMITING FACTORS: Timing of the northern movement of the warm front and advection of the warmer and humid airmass would be key to how the thunderstorm risk shapes up. With the wind shear, energy, lift and colder air aloft, these factors will create an environment for strong to severe thunderstorms. The Monday morning high-resolution guidance hints at sufficient energy to develop stronger thunderstorms. There also may be enough convective energy to give the thunderstorms some potency. These higher winds will help to create low-level wind shear that can help enhance thunderstorms and add enough “spin” to them. The warmer and humid air is an important ingredient with thunderstorm development.ĮLEMENTS: The upper-level trough and strengthening low will help to bring faster low-level winds. The aforementioned warm front is forecast to continue its northward movement during the afternoon, which will bring in warmer and more humid air. Simultaneously, a trough of low pressure aloft was over Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana based on the water vapor imagery, and was more negatively tilted.

with a warm front just to the north of Valdosta. WEATHER SETUP: Subjective surface observations Monday afternoon show an area of low pressure centered near Pensacola, Fla.